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Enrique Peña Nieto is scrambling to save the legacy of his much-lauded reform of Mexico’s oil industry as the doors of Mexico’s political cycle close on the president amid electoral defeats, political violence and a tough global environment for the oil industry.

Meanwhile, Pemex chief Jose Antonio Gonzalez Anaya seeks to defend the formerly invulnerable castle of the state oil company from what some fear could be imminent collapse.

Right behind him is Isaac Volin, head of PMI International, the state company’s international trading arm, and the company’s second in command in practical terms.

Gonzalez Anaya was appointed in February. Volin followed in June. Neither had previous experience in the oil business.

On his appointment, Volin was described by Pemex as a person “with extensive experience in the restructuring of companies and business units in order to raise their profitability and reposition them strategically.”

Volin is also likely to further broaden the client-base for Mexican crude as a hedge for expectations of US self-sufficiency.

Pemex’s domestic product monopoly is tumbling down as US companies develop rail routes, pipelines and terminals to target northern Mexico with oil and gas products.

There may not be much Pemex can do to defend that market segment but it could look to develop other regions of the country.

Pemex would be much more likely to concentrate in the markets in southern and central Mexico.

“It’s a big country,” said Arturo Carranza, of Mexico’s National Institute of Public Administration. “There’s room for everyone.”

There is plenty of room, but very little time for Gonzalez Anaya and Volin.

“I’d not give them much more than a year in order to make the necessary changes,” said Mexico City-based independent analyst Dwight Dyer.

One term presidency limits reform efforts

The reason lies in the political system. Each presidential administration lasts for six years, and there is no re-election. Many of the major policy decisions and projects by the previous administration are quietly shelved, among them those of Pemex with price tags of billions of dollars. And only rarely have Pemex chiefs survived the transition between one administration and the other.

The 2018 presidential election will almost certainly be hotly contested, but one candidate in particular will be watched by the oil industry. The early front-runner i...